We've made it to 2015

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InFerNo
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We've made it to 2015

Post by InFerNo » Wed Dec 31, 2014 8:57 pm

How far will we get?
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Re: We've made it to 2015

Post by Mr. YOur no fun » Wed Dec 31, 2014 11:59 pm

Well apparently in two billion years the sun will burn out, have a chance to get there, well not us, unless there is reincarnation.

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Re: We've made it to 2015

Post by Phoenix » Fri Jan 02, 2015 3:32 am

Actually the sun is only about halfway through its life cycle at ~4.5 billion years so we have another ~4.5+ billion years to go.

However, unless we advance a LOT more, the Earth will be doomed long before the sun completely burns out and turns into a white dwarf star. As it gets near the end of its hydrogen fuel, it will get much brighter & hotter boiling away the oceans and turning the planet into a furnace. Then when the hydrogen finally runs out, the sun will begin fusing other elements and turn into a red giant star. There is a good chance the sun will expand and engulf the inner planets. Then and only then will the sun finally burn out and turn into a white dwarf.

But I am glad to be back and celebrate the new year with my DDay comrades!

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Re: We've made it to 2015

Post by Bill Stokes » Fri Jan 02, 2015 10:55 am

Humans will fuck it all up long before the sun dies. Like it's happening now with all these religious groups blowing everything/everyone up, and NK rattling their sabres etc.

Anyway, Happy New Year to all - my 56th!

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Re: We've made it to 2015

Post by Phoenix » Fri Jan 02, 2015 12:03 pm

I've always been an optimist when it comes to the future of our species. I know with all the "news" outlets talking about bombings, war, and death it seems like the world is nothing but a depressing meat grinder. But when you step back and really look at the big picture, we are honestly in what might be the most peaceful period of human history. While there are still wars and fighting, they are much smaller and have fewer people killed than ever before. In the past, deaths caused by war and war related activities ranged from 50-500 killed per 100,000 people. Today, we are looking at less than 1 per 100,000 killed due to war.

On another note (or possibly a related one) - I think the creation of the internet is a MUCH bigger deal than anyone realizes. Our generation is the one that got to see its birth and initial growth. Look how much it has already changed the world and how we do things in a scant 20 years. That is a blink of an eye. The next generation after ours is the first to grow up with a world that always had the internet. We are an infinitely curious, clever and adaptable species. In the distant past, the cleverest of us would only instantly benefit their immediate geographical area with their ideas slowly spreading out generation by generation. Even then, there would be parts of the globe that would never benefit from their genius. Today, the brightest of us can spread their ideas instantly throughout the planet and converse with other most clever people to shape and improve their ideas to better benefit mankind.

I believe within 5 generations or less, we will have a significant portion of our population living full time not on Earth. Not necessarily on other worlds outside our solar system, but in local colonies and space habitats. That will of course eventually lead to slowly (or perhaps fast depending on future propulsion advances) spread throughout the stars. When that happens, our species will essentially become immortal - lasting for billions if not trillions of years hence. No, we wouldn't be "human" then as we know the term today - but the beings of that distant future can all point to this one small planet where all their ancestors came from.

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Re: We've made it to 2015

Post by Mr. YOur no fun » Sat Jan 03, 2015 11:31 pm

Of course, after all it is only approximately 25 trillion miles to the nearest star.

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Re: We've made it to 2015

Post by Phoenix » Sun Jan 04, 2015 3:47 am

Mr. YOur no fun wrote:Of course, after all it is only approximately 25 trillion miles to the nearest star.
Very true. But if something like the Alcubierre drive works out, we may travel to the nearest star systems a lot faster than currently even remotely possible. Even if we find that faster than light travel is inherently impossible to physically do in our universe, there are other methods to spread throughout the stars. They would of course require our species to develop an extremely long-view plan. With a fair amount of more development into 3D Printing technology among other advances, we could create a probe that can be sent out with current propulsion technology. When it reaches its destination, it mines resources and builds perfect copies of itself to send on to further destinations. For suitable locations, it might also be able to "build" exact replica humans with all the thoughts, memories, and personality intact from when the original was scanned. If quantum entanglement can be found to transfer information, it might even be possible for these newly built groups of humans to instantly communicate to all other groups of humans in existence. A fairly recent study found that if we can get the probe to moving 1/10th the speed of light and use gravitational slingshot effect around stars, the entire galaxy can be explored in about 10 million years. While that sounds and is a very, very long time by our perspective, on universal timescales it is downright fast!

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Re: We've made it to 2015

Post by Bill Stokes » Sun Jan 04, 2015 10:54 am

Pheonix, I don't think you realise how big space is.

Voyager 1 was launched in 1977 and is just now at the edge of our little solar system. It's speed is about 62000 kph. Right, so that is 37 years to get that far.

Suppose we double it's speed? 124000 kph (34.4 kilometres per second) - that would still have taken 18.5 years to get there.

Double the speed again to 248000 kph (68 kilometres per second) - again 9.25 years to get there.

Space is VAST - and I doubt man will ever, ever get anywhere near the stars, apart from craft like the voyager missions arriving somewhere in a few 100 million years (remember local space in just our little part of one galaxy, and there are billions of galaxies) when we will be all dead and gone.

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Re: We've made it to 2015

Post by Parts » Sun Jan 04, 2015 12:31 pm

So, can we have your liver then?
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Re: We've made it to 2015

Post by Bill Stokes » Sun Jan 04, 2015 12:51 pm

Parts wrote:So, can we have your liver then?
I haven't got a liver - I have a brewery.

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Re: We've made it to 2015

Post by Munstin » Sun Jan 04, 2015 1:38 pm

Phoenix wrote:I've always been an optimist when it comes to the future of our species. I know with all the "news" outlets talking about bombings, war, and death it seems like the world is nothing but a depressing meat grinder. But when you step back and really look at the big picture, we are honestly in what might be the most peaceful period of human history. While there are still wars and fighting, they are much smaller and have fewer people killed than ever before. In the past, deaths caused by war and war related activities ranged from 50-500 killed per 100,000 people. Today, we are looking at less than 1 per 100,000 killed due to war.
If anything the megadeath caused by war was an effective check on population growth. That and disease. I'd say that overpopulation, limited resources/space and social/demographic problems could cause the peace you mentioned to evaporate very quickly. What happen when >50% of our population of the West is made up of pensioners? Will the economy be able to support that? What's going to happen when we run out of cheap oil? Ground water (which is being used up for fracking and cities in arid regions)? Much of the oceans are being fished barren. Check out the death by Utopia experiments by John B. Calhoun.

I think there's a period of unpleasantness coming before humanity figures it all out. We as a species seem to learn things the hardest way possible. It took the 30 years war for separation of church and state to start. Some parts of Germany lost around something like 80% of their population. I'll be in my bunker if you need me... ;[
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Re: We've made it to 2015

Post by Phoenix » Mon Jan 05, 2015 11:45 am

Bill Stokes wrote:Pheonix, I don't think you realise how big space is.
I really do realize how big space is (astronomy is actually one of my passions). Hence why the two methods to expand into it either require some serious breakthroughs in propulsion technology like the Alcubierre drive (basically a real Star Trek warp drive) or a form of self-replicating & self-directed probes (which admittedly require a VERY long view which our species is currently not in the habit of doing very well).

We could send a probe much, much faster than Voyager 1 if we wanted to. Voyagers 1 & 2 along with New Horizons are all traveling at a solar system escape velocity. The Voyagers needed to use gravitational slingshot boosts to reach such a speed while New Horizons was the first one we sent out that reached such a speed completely under its own power. But they all needed to reach planetary bodies so their speeds had to be closely calculated & kept in check. If our goal was to fling something out of the solar system as fast as possible without needing to rendezvous with and utilize instruments on a solar body, we could really fling that shit out of here!

But even at some crazy speed we could come up with, it would take the equivalent of at least several generations to reach even the nearest star. Hence where the self-replicating/directed probes come in. While the first few star systems would take a long time, the speed which it explores would become exponential. "Only" 10,000,000 years to reach every single star in our galaxy.

Could humans as we are today do it? No. Not a chance. Too short sighted. But hopefully future humans will have evolved enough to be able to take such a long view. If we relied only on evolution by natural selection, I don't think we could ever evolve to that point. But we are currently in the early stages of taking direct control of our evolution.
Munstin wrote: I think there's a period of unpleasantness coming before humanity figures it all out. We as a species seem to learn things the hardest way possible. It took the 30 years war for separation of church and state to start. Some parts of Germany lost around something like 80% of their population. I'll be in my bunker if you need me... ;[
Sadly, I think you may be correct. I think it comes down to how quickly we can take advantage and harvest the resources that can be found throughout our solar system. We are only now just in the planning stages of capturing an asteroid with the long-term goal of harvesting its resources. It will be a race between when most everything becomes cheap and abundant (which would allow people to move out into colonies and/or space habitats) and whatever the population "wall" will be that the resources of Earth itself becomes unable to support the masive human population. Though even if we do hit that wall hard and the possibility of billions of people dying, it would be a tragedy but not the end of us. We would come through it, perhaps spurned on quicker by it, and move out into space.

We can't all stay on this planet forever. All our eggs in one basket does not bode well for our species future survival.

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Re: We've made it to 2015

Post by Munstin » Tue Jan 06, 2015 6:38 pm

I'm quite optimistic about humanity in the long run, I didn't mean to give the impression that I was. Eventually we'll get it right and colonize the solar system. Not in any meaningful way though any time soon. We went to the moon after all but just in a tourist capacity to say, "Ha! take that you commie bastards!" Apathy, ignorance and denial will hold us back well short of where we could (should) be, just like during the Dark Ages did.
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Re: We've made it to 2015

Post by Phoenix » Wed Jan 07, 2015 2:02 am

Very well said! I was only hoping the absolute need for raw materials, such as ores and food, solely from the Earth doesn't outstrip the advancement of obtaining some of all of those materials off-world. If we eventually do need more materials than the Earth can provide, even considering advancements in utilizing those materials more efficiently, then we'll hit the proverbial wall. But if we can keep that wall far enough away for long enough, we might not have to go through the tragedy it would cause.

We as a species are advancing at an ever more incredible rate. Consider this message board we are using for this discussion. The technology used is only a couple decades old or so. Yet we consider this old technology. Being able to communicate a message basically instantly to anyone in the world and get a reply just as fast would be considered witchcraft and powerful magics for nearly the entirety of human history. Only the past 200 years or so (out of the hundred of thousand if not millions of years prior) that such an idea wasn't immediately met with ridicule and questions about your sanity.

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Re: We've made it to 2015

Post by Mr. YOur no fun » Wed Jan 07, 2015 4:43 am

you don't like witchcraft?

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Re: We've made it to 2015

Post by Bill Stokes » Wed Jan 07, 2015 12:45 pm

Phoenix wrote:Consider this message board we are using for this discussion. The technology used is only a couple decades old or so. Yet we consider this old technology. Being able to communicate a message basically instantly to anyone in the world and get a reply just as fast would be considered witchcraft and powerful magics for nearly the entirety of human history.
But this in itself is a fatal flaw us humans have got us into.

We only need a large solar burst, or an electrical grid overload (or whatever) and the way we all work and act and communicate will halt - and nobody will be able to do anything (or know how to do anything), and society will collapse.

I am lucky to have been brought up in the days when there was no computers or mobile phones (yikes, when I was about 7 years old, only two houses in the street had a landline!) so I probably don't rely on such stuff to get by (including maths with a pen and paper and in my head), but anyone under the age of say 30, will not have a clue what to do.

It is a knife edge, and a disaster waiting to happen.

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Re: We've made it to 2015

Post by Phoenix » Wed Jan 07, 2015 1:03 pm

Mr. YOur no fun wrote:you don't like witchcraft?
Witch?! Where's a witch?? BURN HER!!

Somebody get a duck!

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Re: We've made it to 2015

Post by Munstin » Thu Jan 08, 2015 5:06 pm

munf turned me into a newt!
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Re: We've made it to 2015

Post by Phoenix » Thu Jan 08, 2015 7:49 pm

Munstin wrote:munf turned me into a newt!
You got better...

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Re: We've made it to 2015

Post by Bill Stokes » Sun Jan 11, 2015 10:18 am

Phoenix wrote:Somebody get a duck!
What's the difference between a duck and an elephant?

You can't get down off an elephant.

I'll get my coat...

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Re: We've made it to 2015

Post by Mr. YOur no fun » Sun Jan 11, 2015 3:28 pm

A Duck?

Viaduct?

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Re: We've made it to 2015

Post by Phoenix » Thu Jan 15, 2015 3:22 am

Bill Stokes wrote: We only need a large solar burst, or an electrical grid overload (or whatever) and the way we all work and act and communicate will halt - and nobody will be able to do anything (or know how to do anything), and society will collapse.
While a historically large coronal mass ejection could knock out our electrical grid, we know how to fix and rebuild it. The solar storm of 1859 knocked out large portions of the nascent telegraph network but it was repaired and life moved on. We are a lot more dependent on our electricity than we were back then, that is an absolute given. Knocking it out would cause major problems, but society would probably be back to normal within a year or two.

But that does raise the point on WHY we need to expand our species out into space. While Earth based natural disasters can be really bad, space based natural disasters could be utterly catastrophic on an unimaginable scale. A large asteroid/comet strike is a popular one and probably one of the more likely to happen. But we are currently increasing the amount of the sky we scan for such an object. If we ever do find one on a collision course, we would most likely have enough time to deal with it using a variety of methods to nudge it out of the way. A Gamma Ray Burst pointed directly at Earth could potentially strip off most of the atmosphere if it's close enough. Eta Carinae being a prime suspect for such an event but I think the chances of it happening are fairly low, within our lifetime pretty much nil. One I've pondered before but haven't heard much if any about is if a massive but hard to detect object like a rogue planet or cool brown dwarf passes through our solar system. It wouldn't have to actually hit anything, just the act of passing through would perturb and destabilize the orbits of the planets.

If we stay on this planet, our species is most likely doomed to extinction. By colonizing other worlds and/or constructing large, expandable, self-sustaining space habitats we assure our species survival basically indefinitely. Unless of course we live in a false-vacuum universe and a pocket of true vacuum forms somewhere. Then we're all just fucked.

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Re: We've made it to 2015

Post by Mr. YOur no fun » Sun Jan 18, 2015 1:19 pm

By the way in the Jewish calendar it is the year 5775. So we made it to 2015 a long time ago.

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Re: We've made it to 2015

Post by do_d{renegade} » Mon Jan 19, 2015 3:11 pm

I think the end of the oil age will prove the biggest challenge for humanity in the near future...if the Saudis talk of the end of the oil age in nearsight we should be worried!

anyway....dday in 2015... brilliant :) Got to be one of the few games....mods....that still has some community years later. Just can't believe it was 14 years ago for me....

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Re: We've made it to 2015

Post by Bill Stokes » Tue Jan 20, 2015 4:46 pm

do_d{renegade} wrote:I think the end of the oil age will prove the biggest challenge for humanity in the near future...if the Saudis talk of the end of the oil age in nearsight we should be worried!
Thank the bloody Yanks and George Bush[s] for that. USA has huge oil reserves but rather than put it on the open market, they sit on it and still buy/import foreign oil. When the oil reserves run-out in Saudi/Iran/Iraq/Libya/North Sea they will be the Mafia of oil.

Why do you think they stick their noses in something that they don't need too?

Nick

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